Keystone snow forecast

Colorado · middle of the mountain, 10,844 ft · updated Thu, Oct 8, 5:15 PM MDT

Little or no new snow is forecast at Keystone over the next three days, under 0.5 in at 10,844 ft. The snow level is forecast to stay above the summit, near 12,500 ft, so any precipitation would more likely fall as rain.

Next 3 days

Thu 12 PM to Fri 12 PM
Oct 8 to Oct 9, MDT
0 in
New snow · Snow level near 12,700 ft
Fri 12 PM to Sat 12 PM
Oct 9 to Oct 10, MDT
0 in
New snow · Snow level near 12,500 ft
Sat 12 PM to Sun 12 PM
Oct 10 to Oct 11, MDT
0 in
New snow · Snow level 12,600 ft to 13,000 ft

About 0 in in all over the three days.

Snow by model, next 3 days

Each thin line is one run of a weather model; the bold line is the middle of all of them. When the lines fan out, the models disagree and the forecast is less certain. Pick a model to see it on its own.

GEFS (31 members)ECMWF EPS (50 members)HRRR (7 runs)AIFS Ensemble (50 members)GFS (4 runs)ECMWF (3 runs)ECMWF AIFS (4 runs)AIGFS (4 runs)NAM Nest (3 runs)All-models medianmeanmodeColoured lines: each model’s median

At Sat, Oct 10, 12 PM

Last 1 h median: 0.00 in
Total min: 0.00 in
Total max: 0.27 in
Total median: 0.00 in
Total mean: 0.00 in
Total mode: 0.00 in

Last 3 h median: 0.00 in
Total min: 0.00 in
Total max: 0.04 in
Total median: 0.00 in
Total mean: 0.00 in
Total mode: 0.00 in

Last 6 h median: 0.00 in
Total min: 0.00 in
Total max: 0.01 in
Total median: 0.00 in
Total mean: 0.00 in
Total mode: 0.00 in

Last 3 h median: 0.00 in
Total min: 0.00 in
Total max: 0.00 in
Total median: 0.00 in
Total mean: 0.00 in
Total mode: 0.00 in

Last 6 h median: 0.00 in
Total min: 0.00 in
Total max: 0.19 in
Total median: 0.00 in
Total mean: 0.01 in
Total mode: 0.00 in

Last 3 h median: 0.00 in
Total min: 0.00 in
Total max: 0.02 in
Total median: 0.00 in
Total mean: 0.00 in
Total mode: 0.00 in

Last 6 h median: 0.00 in
Total min: 0.00 in
Total max: 0.00 in
Total median: 0.00 in
Total mean: 0.00 in
Total mode: 0.00 in

Last 6 h median: 0.00 in
Total min: 0.00 in
Total max: 0.00 in
Total median: 0.00 in
Total mean: 0.00 in
Total mode: 0.00 in

Last 6 h median: 0.00 in
Total min: 0.00 in
Total max: 0.00 in
Total median: 0.00 in
Total mean: 0.00 in
Total mode: 0.00 in

Last 1 h median: 0.00 in
Total min: 0.00 in
Total max: 0.00 in
Total median: 0.00 in
Total mean: 0.00 in
Total mode: 0.00 in

GEFS 0.5°, 31 members (control + 30 perturbations). Run 20261008T12Z. ECMWF EPS (ENS) 0.25°, 50 perturbed members · CC BY 4.0. Run 20261008T12Z. HRRR 3 km, the 7 most recent hourly runs overlaid as members. Successive runs of one model, not perturbations; runs past their own horizon drop out. Snow is HRRR's own accumulated depth. Run 20261008T21Z. ECMWF AIFS ensemble 0.25°, 50 perturbed members of the AI forecast model · CC BY 4.0. Run 20261008T12Z. GFS 0.25°, the 4 most recent runs (6-hourly cycles) overlaid as members. Successive runs of one model, not perturbations. Run 20261008T12Z. ECMWF IFS 0.25°, the 3 most recent runs (00/12Z cycles) overlaid as members. Successive runs of one model, not perturbations · CC BY 4.0. Run 20261008T12Z. ECMWF AIFS 0.25°, the 4 most recent runs (6-hourly cycles) of the single AI forecast overlaid as members. Successive runs of one model, not perturbations · CC BY 4.0. Run 20261008T12Z. NOAA AI-GFS 0.25°, the 4 most recent runs (6-hourly cycles) overlaid as members. Successive runs of one model, not perturbations. Publishes no snow field. Run 20261008T12Z. NAM 3 km CONUS Nest, the 3 most recent runs (6-hourly cycles) overlaid as members. Successive runs of one model, not perturbations. Run 20261008T18Z. Snow is each model's precipitation and temperature adjusted to 10,844 ft. Read it as an estimate for that height. Totals count from Thu 9 PM, where the chart begins, so every model's total counts the same hours. The consensus lines pool every model with equal weight per model, so a 50-member ensemble does not outvote a 4-run set. The mode is the value the pooled lines cluster around most tightly; when it sits away from the median, the models have split into camps and the mode marks the bigger one. A dash in the readouts means that model does not cover the hour under the cursor.

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The full Keystone forecast

Days 4 through 16, for every model
Base and summit forecasts, not just the middle
Storm timing: when the snow starts, peaks and stops
Freezing level and snow level charts through each storm

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About Keystone

Location: Colorado, Colorado
Base: 9,280 ft
Middle (forecast height): 10,844 ft
Summit: 12,408 ft
Vertical: 3,128 ft

How this forecast is made

Keystone runs from about 9,280 ft at the base to 12,408 ft at the summit. Rain at the base can be snow up top, so the forecast is made for a height: the middle of the mountain, about 10,844 ft. Each number is the middle value of 9 weather models after adjusting them for that height. It is a forecast, not a measurement, and it changes as new model runs arrive.

Keystone snow forecast questions

How much snow is Keystone forecast to get?

What is the snow level at Keystone?

The snow level is the lowest height where precipitation still falls mostly as snow. Forecast for Keystone: Thursday into Friday: near 12,700 ft; Friday into Saturday: near 12,500 ft; Saturday into Sunday: 12,600 ft to 13,000 ft. The base is at 9,280 ft and the summit at 12,408 ft.

How high is Keystone?

Keystone runs from about 9,280 ft at the base to 12,408 ft at the summit, about 3,128 ft of vertical. This page forecasts the middle of the mountain, about 10,844 ft.

How often is the Keystone snow forecast updated?

Four times a day, as new runs of 9 weather models arrive. This forecast was updated Thu, Oct 8, 5:15 PM MDT.

Why does a mountain snow forecast depend on height?

Air cools as it rises, so the same storm can bring rain at the base and deep snow at the summit, and mountains squeeze more precipitation out of the air higher up. Weather models see the mountain as a smoothed-out slope, so each model's snow is adjusted to the height being forecast, using adjustments checked against last winter's mountain snow measurements.